Thursday, March 31, 2011
My 2011 Masters pick: Ryo Ishikawa
Ryo Ishikawa just pledged to donate all of his 2011 earnings to the relief effort in Japan. Talk about karma! On top of that, he's donating 100,000 yen ($1200) per birdie. And he's 19. What a bro.
Here's the story.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
This is why you stay disciplined
and get out when your idea turns on you. If not, profits can turn into losses pretty quickly.
euro spike
DZZ
ERY
And I'm done for the day
Euro continued to weaken this morning, so I loaded up on ERY and DZZ. The euro bottomed out and jumped higher, so I sold my hedges for a quick and decent gain because my initial idea (euro weakness - see earlier post) was no longer tenable.
Notice as the euro bounced at 10:40, both ETFs dove (indicates a bounce in gold and energy).
euro
DZZ (short gold)
ERY (short energy)
Market Wed 3/30
What I'm looking at this morning, if anyone cares:
Futures are up 50 bps - not surprising. This "teflon market" has been disregarding negative catalysts recently (conflicts in the middle east, global GDP revisions post Japan disaster, Eurozone downgrades) as investors rush to buy the 5% correction.
I've learned to pay attention to fixed income and currencies - these are a fairly good indicators of risk aversion and tend to lead equities intraday. Interestingly treasuries are bid up, which is "risk off." Also, the dollar is bid up slightly - I look at USD as a safe haven. With the futures up, I'd expect the opposite in FI and FX land. Thus I'm skeptical of the sustainability of gains today and will not add to positions but will look to hedge my dollar related positions (gold and energy) by trading DZZ and ERY. Shorting this market has proven to be disastrous, so I will do so very carefully and only if the euro breaks down significantly.
The euro has had a ridiculous run lately despite deteriorating conditions in Portugal and Ireland and several downgrades of Eurozone debt. The euro strength is based on Trichet's hawkish statements and expectations ECB will raise rates when they meet on Apr 7. I have a feeling these expectations are overblown and have been looking to short the euro as this crowded trade reverses its course. I like playing EUO (ultra short euro etf) and I've noticed it has been a good hedge to my long positions. I've also noticed the EUO Apr 19 calls are very cheap so I've been loading up at .10. EUO is currently 18.08 so the euro would have to fall about 2.5% by option expiration (Apr 15) for these calls to be in the money. I expect the euro to be volatile after the ECB meets and will get absolutely crushed if they hold rates steady with their easy money policy.
Futures are up 50 bps - not surprising. This "teflon market" has been disregarding negative catalysts recently (conflicts in the middle east, global GDP revisions post Japan disaster, Eurozone downgrades) as investors rush to buy the 5% correction.
I've learned to pay attention to fixed income and currencies - these are a fairly good indicators of risk aversion and tend to lead equities intraday. Interestingly treasuries are bid up, which is "risk off." Also, the dollar is bid up slightly - I look at USD as a safe haven. With the futures up, I'd expect the opposite in FI and FX land. Thus I'm skeptical of the sustainability of gains today and will not add to positions but will look to hedge my dollar related positions (gold and energy) by trading DZZ and ERY. Shorting this market has proven to be disastrous, so I will do so very carefully and only if the euro breaks down significantly.
The euro has had a ridiculous run lately despite deteriorating conditions in Portugal and Ireland and several downgrades of Eurozone debt. The euro strength is based on Trichet's hawkish statements and expectations ECB will raise rates when they meet on Apr 7. I have a feeling these expectations are overblown and have been looking to short the euro as this crowded trade reverses its course. I like playing EUO (ultra short euro etf) and I've noticed it has been a good hedge to my long positions. I've also noticed the EUO Apr 19 calls are very cheap so I've been loading up at .10. EUO is currently 18.08 so the euro would have to fall about 2.5% by option expiration (Apr 15) for these calls to be in the money. I expect the euro to be volatile after the ECB meets and will get absolutely crushed if they hold rates steady with their easy money policy.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Dilemma du jour
Last LCD Soundsystem concert ever @ MSG
OR
Uconn vs. Kentucky Final Four game
Sorry hipsters, it's Kemba time
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Friday, March 25, 2011
On Duke
Last night was great. Duke gets trounced and Uconn pulls off an impressive win against SDSU.
An amazing email exchange:
From: Taylor, Jennifer
Sent: Friday, April 16, 1999 2:55 PM
To: Brand, Elton
Subject: Leaving Duke
I graduated from Duke last May and just wanted to express my disgust for your decision to leave the Duke program after only two years. As an alum, not only do I hold the school in high regard, but the basketball program as well, especially since both have deservedly garnered such a great deal of respect for their accomplishments.
As part of our basketball program, you represent Duke as a whole. We are first and foremost an academic school, you clearly did not belong at Duke in the first place if this was the extent of your commitment to Duke and a college education in general. You have not only insulted the current students who are putting in four years at a school they love, but also the thousands of alumni who have realized the value of a Duke education and what an honor and privilege it was to be there for four years.
If you do not realize the opportunity you has infront of you to play for Coach K and at the same time attain a Duke diploma, then that is certainly your loss. I just wish that you has spared us the notion that you were continuing in the tradition of being a Duke student-athlete, in emphasizing excellence in both academics and athletics. You will not be considered part of the Duke family, in my mind as well as many others. You have by no means proved yourself worthy of that title.
Sincerely,
Jennifer Taylor
From: Elton Tyron Brand
Sent: Sunday, April 25, 1999 8:05 PM
To: Taylor, Jennifer
Subject: Re: Leaving Duke
Thank you very much, for reminding me of the reason why I left Duke. People like you can not and will not ever understand my situation. I'm sure daddy worked very hard to send your rich self to college. While real people struggle. I would also like to extend an invitation for you not to waste your or my time ever again. Never being considered a part of your posh group of yuppies really hurts me to the heart. Yeah, right. Because I don't care about you or your alumni.
Sincerely, Elton Brand #42 NBA
Thursday, March 24, 2011
How to get drunk in Murray Hill for $20
An appropriate question for 7:45 AM. Of course you could chug a bottle of Svedka but how about a little class?
Introducing El Rio Grande on 38th and 3rd. I feel like this place gets no credit. I mean there's not even any good pictures on Google images. I'll admit I haven't been back since I found out they removed the massive stuffed buffalo hanging over the bar. But as the weather gets nicer, I start thinking about enjoying libations outside, and I'm reminded of its massive courtyard, always packed during happy hour, and of course its infamous margaritas.
When I first ordered one, my impression was it was the worst deal in the city. Ten bucks for a drink served in one of those mini plastic dixie cups? Give me a break. So I ordered two. Then I blacked out. See ya later.
No one knows for sure, but the rumor is they use Everclear instead of tequila. Don't ask the bartenders, they get pissed.
Disclaimer: if you try one of these, make sure to do so after, not before, dinner.
Bonus: go on a Tuesday. That way you can hop across the street for $1 beers at Third and Long.
Introducing El Rio Grande on 38th and 3rd. I feel like this place gets no credit. I mean there's not even any good pictures on Google images. I'll admit I haven't been back since I found out they removed the massive stuffed buffalo hanging over the bar. But as the weather gets nicer, I start thinking about enjoying libations outside, and I'm reminded of its massive courtyard, always packed during happy hour, and of course its infamous margaritas.
When I first ordered one, my impression was it was the worst deal in the city. Ten bucks for a drink served in one of those mini plastic dixie cups? Give me a break. So I ordered two. Then I blacked out. See ya later.
No one knows for sure, but the rumor is they use Everclear instead of tequila. Don't ask the bartenders, they get pissed.
Disclaimer: if you try one of these, make sure to do so after, not before, dinner.
Bonus: go on a Tuesday. That way you can hop across the street for $1 beers at Third and Long.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Bierhaus review
On Saturday I stopped by the newly opened Bierhaus for a few mid-afternoon liters. Despite its weak location (3rd and 45th), this place has a lot to offer:
5 varieties of Hofbrau - didn't even know 5 varieties existed. The Original Lager, Hefe Weizen, Dunkel (my all time favorite brew), Dunkel Weizen (on the list for next visit), and Bock
A large open space with a dozen or so communal picnic tables in the traditional fashion of Munich's Hofbrahaus. Also a massive skylight in the center to provide a bright atmosphere
There's also a big deck which overlooks 3rd ave, an ideal spot on nice days
Place was packed at around 3pm but the liters were kind of pricey at $16 each. I'm thinking this place suits large groups - the communal tables can get fun and rowdy. But if you're looking for a spot with a less mid-towny feel, I'd stick to Zum Schneider on C and 7th. Liters run $10-14 and the food is absolutely amazing.
5 varieties of Hofbrau - didn't even know 5 varieties existed. The Original Lager, Hefe Weizen, Dunkel (my all time favorite brew), Dunkel Weizen (on the list for next visit), and Bock
A large open space with a dozen or so communal picnic tables in the traditional fashion of Munich's Hofbrahaus. Also a massive skylight in the center to provide a bright atmosphere
There's also a big deck which overlooks 3rd ave, an ideal spot on nice days
Place was packed at around 3pm but the liters were kind of pricey at $16 each. I'm thinking this place suits large groups - the communal tables can get fun and rowdy. But if you're looking for a spot with a less mid-towny feel, I'd stick to Zum Schneider on C and 7th. Liters run $10-14 and the food is absolutely amazing.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Buckle up
The most insane ski comp I've ever seen. Watch 21 yr old Pettit stomp a 3 over a 70 footer, and Treadway lay out a backflip over an 80 footer.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Ana Tijoux is legit
First heard her on Aurgasm. This is what they have to say:
There’s a surprising gap between MTV mainstream hip-hop and the uber-coolness of what’s actually happening to the music nowadays. Unknown to the mainstream audiences, French-born Chilean MC Ana Tijoux may very well be that elusive next best thing in hip-hop music. Ana’s album 1977 pays tribute to the old-school hip-hop, mixing organic vinyl scratches, urban grooves, jazzy horn samples and Latin sounds. Ana’s voice is velvety and smoky, some times whispery, yet always seamlessly flowing with the the beats. One song standing out is the largely autobiographical title track “1977″ with its strong melody, Mexican trumpets, dynamic rhythms and truly excellent production.
Irish sausages
St. Patrick's day may be the most annoying holiday in the city. More jabronis come out of the woodwork (aka Dirty Jerz) today than Santacon.
The only redeeming aspect is Irish sausages. If you've never had these, I advise you to visit Myers of Keswick (Hudson bw Horatio and Jane) immediately if not sooner and pick some up. They will blow your mind. Treat yourself to a pack of Fruit Pastilles while you're at it.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Gordon Lightfoot
This past weekend my brother introduced me to Lightfoot. I'll be honest, at first I wasn't sold. But as I listened, the lyrics resonated and pretty soon I couldn't get the hetty tune out of my head. I especially like this line:
Sometimes I think it's a shame
When I get feeling better when I'm feeling no pain.
Comment from YouTube sums it up:
This is what happens when you get 1 good song writer with 3 acoustic guitars and no GD Simon Cowell involved. You tell a story and make music. And it's good, not pablum.
Definitely going to check out more of this Canuck's stuff.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
If you have 15 minutes today
watch this:
Japan Through Five Eyes
A short film about skiing Hokkaido and Hakuba. Great editing and music. Usually not a big fan of POVs but 8:11 is a great shot.
Visit their blog here.
Japan Through Five Eyes
A short film about skiing Hokkaido and Hakuba. Great editing and music. Usually not a big fan of POVs but 8:11 is a great shot.
Visit their blog here.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
I've never had a bloomin' onion
I was just on Deadspin and saw this:
Are they as good as everyone says? I'd never even heard of such a thing till Jdow started raving about it. Outback tonight anyone?
This reminds me, one of these weekends we need to set aside a day dedicated to a part of the city which eludes most of its inhabitants. I'm talking about a day of B&T griminess. I've been hitting the East Village and LES so often I think it's time to change it up. Obviously we start in Times Square:
- Lunch at TGIFs
- Afternoon @ Dave & Busters
- Drinks @ ESPN Zone
- Dinner @ Bubba Gump Shrimp
After dinner we head East and hit Murray Hill bars: Tonic, Joshua Tree, and Arctica. Strict dress code of dark dress shirts or graphic tees, preferably Ed Hardy. Blow outs/sunglasses worn to bars is a plus.
Are they as good as everyone says? I'd never even heard of such a thing till Jdow started raving about it. Outback tonight anyone?
This reminds me, one of these weekends we need to set aside a day dedicated to a part of the city which eludes most of its inhabitants. I'm talking about a day of B&T griminess. I've been hitting the East Village and LES so often I think it's time to change it up. Obviously we start in Times Square:
- Lunch at TGIFs
- Afternoon @ Dave & Busters
- Drinks @ ESPN Zone
- Dinner @ Bubba Gump Shrimp
After dinner we head East and hit Murray Hill bars: Tonic, Joshua Tree, and Arctica. Strict dress code of dark dress shirts or graphic tees, preferably Ed Hardy. Blow outs/sunglasses worn to bars is a plus.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
MMJ
Can't wait for the new My Morning Jacket album coming sometime this Spring.
Here are some free downloads
A great list of streaming covers by MMJ
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
A little less lax, a lot more business
I was on the precipice of becoming a ski bum a couple days ago. Returning to New York I realized I needed to revamp my image. The flow, while acceptable in places like Whistler, just doesn't cut it in the city. Also, I didn't want my brand new nephew Oliver Parker Powell to get the wrong impression when I meet him for the first time this weekend.
Say good bye to the flow
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Day 5
Demoed these guys for the final day of skiing.
A great day to end a great trip.
Rossignol Super S7. 195 in length and 115 under the boot. Rockered tip and tail for floating pow and a traditional camber for ripping groomers. Plus a metal core for extra stiffness. Absolute beasts - my legs were destroyed by the end of the day.
It was going off when we got to Peak Chair this morning. About 8 inches of new snow fell overnight and the visibility was ok, finally some decent conditions for sending cliffs. Waiting in the first lift line of the day, we saw two people drop Air Jordan, a classic double stager (10 fter followed by a 40fter), and one dude throw a cork 7 off Waterfall, another classic cliff just below Jordan.
I decided to put my new skis to work on the first run:
This is Waterfall, we estimated 40 ft. I did not stick the landing - both skis went flying on impact. The crowd in the lift line loved it.
Nate hit a smaller cliff skier's right of Waterfall.
A great day to end a great trip.
Friday, March 4, 2011
Day 4
Still dumping and no wind. We hit Spanky's first thing.
First lap was Ruby Bowl - best run of the trip. A day's worth of snow on the best terrain Blackcomb has to offer.
The sun broke out for our second lap down Sapphire Bowl providing excellent visibility.
Day off today. Forecast for tomorrow is clear skies - looking forward to some views. A week of snow is nice but the flat light is getting annoying.
First lap was Ruby Bowl - best run of the trip. A day's worth of snow on the best terrain Blackcomb has to offer.
Jdow
The sun broke out for our second lap down Sapphire Bowl providing excellent visibility.
Nate hiking for turns on top of Blackcomb glacier
Resting before the traverse out of the glacier.
Day off today. Forecast for tomorrow is clear skies - looking forward to some views. A week of snow is nice but the flat light is getting annoying.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Day 2/3
It's been dumping non-stop. We skied Whistler Tuesday and back to Blackcomb on Wednesday. Unfortunately patrol closed the upper mountain due to high winds.
Not much to work with so we stuck to the trees.
A foot fell today and upper mountain was left untouched. Tomorrow morning is going to be epic - can't wait to hit Spanky's first thing.
Not much to work with so we stuck to the trees.
Pete crushing
A foot fell today and upper mountain was left untouched. Tomorrow morning is going to be epic - can't wait to hit Spanky's first thing.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Insanity on a bike
People of Valparaiso, Chile know how to have a good time.
Thank you Eric for the video.
Thank you Eric for the video.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Whistler/Blackcomb: day 1
6 inches overnight and the sun started to break out at about 8am. We decide to head straight for Seventh Heaven to guarantee some untracked terrain. They held the chair for a good hour but it was well worth the wait. We made 4 or 5 laps and had fresh tracks through the trees each time.
Getting slightly spoiled with new snow every morning. At some point I'm going to have to expect bumps.
After lapping Seventh Heaven we hiked up Spanky's Ladder. At this point it was about 12:30 but the snow snow was still nice.
Couldn't have asked for a better first day. I've heard stories of weeks on end of terrible visibility and no snow.
Getting slightly spoiled with new snow every morning. At some point I'm going to have to expect bumps.
After lapping Seventh Heaven we hiked up Spanky's Ladder. At this point it was about 12:30 but the snow snow was still nice.
Couldn't have asked for a better first day. I've heard stories of weeks on end of terrible visibility and no snow.
Nate and I with a taste of WB terrain in the background
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About Me
- Christopher Powell
- New York, New York
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2011
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March
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- My 2011 Masters pick: Ryo Ishikawa
- Tree well rescue
- This is why you stay disciplined
- And I'm done for the day
- Market Wed 3/30
- Dilemma du jour
- Ween
- On Duke
- How to get drunk in Murray Hill for $20
- Bierhaus review
- Buckle up
- Ana Tijoux is legit
- Irish sausages
- Gordon Lightfoot
- If you have 15 minutes today
- SAT analogy of the day
- I've never had a bloomin' onion
- The Art of Flight
- Wake up to:
- MMJ
- A little less lax, a lot more business
- Day 5
- Day 4
- Day 2/3
- Insanity on a bike
- Ridic music video
- Whistler/Blackcomb: day 1
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